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Pick Your Poison: How AL East Aces Should Approach Judge and Stanton

: STATS LLC

American League East teams not located in the Bronx have a problem. 这是两个问题, 真的, and they both stand at about 6-foot-6 and have over 500 pounds of pure muscle between them.

Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton combined for 111 home runs last year, 以历史性的速度清理外场墙. They played their home games 1,300 miles away from each other, though. 今年,他们共用一个防空洞.

That causes a problem for first-year Yankee manager Aaron Boone, though his is a good one. 新时代的巴什兄弟的顺序是什么?

If one follows the other, opposing pitchers won’t want to pitch to either of them. They wouldn’t be able to afford to pitch around both of them either, or they’re putting a guy into scoring position before bat meets ball. This kind of problem is the bad kind once again, and it falls back in the lap of opposing pitchers.

你如何选择向谁投球,以及对谁小心翼翼? 当然,这很大程度上与对位有关. Some of it has to do with what you do well as a pitcher compared against what Judge and Stanton do well at the plate. STATS TVL投影-音高类型(T), velocity (V) and location (L) – take all of that into consideration (along with many other factors). vip威尼斯登录入口将对2018季进行预测, and go through which Bash Bro each of the projected Opening Day starters in the AL East should choose to attack.

克里斯·塞尔,波士顿红袜队

尽管贾奇去年取得了巨大的成功,但塞尔还是拥有了他. The AL Rookie of the Year was 0 for 12 against Sale with 10 strikeouts.

The Boston ace pumped fastballs to opposing right-handed hitters about 50 percent of the time last year, 这也是对贾奇不利的案子. Judge’s stat line against lefty fastballs was nothing to write home about: .203 AVG /.378 OBP /.469次全垒打,8分打点,22次三振.

That’s probably why Sale finished off Judge with a fastball seven times.

2018年对塞尔不利的预测对贾奇有利, 尽管他们仍然不太讨人喜欢: .214 AVG /.462年SLG. 预计他的得分不会高于 .187对Sale的四缝线或滑条.

Stanton has never faced Sale, though his numbers last season against lefty fastballs – .356/.465/.有六支双打, 六个本垒打, 17 RBIs – make his 2018 projections against Sale much better than Judge’s. 斯坦顿计划出击 .317年,鼻涕虫 .927 off the Red Sox lefty, while clobbering his slider to the tune of a .平均445和1.675长打率.

Sale不是一个让击球手退让的公司, but he would be wise to be careful with Stanton and attack Judge instead, 就像去年夏天一样.

坦帕湾光芒队的克里斯·阿彻

阿彻在联盟赛中曾两次对上热火队, 所以贾奇和斯坦顿对他的指控都有一定的样本量.

斯坦顿没在这两场比赛中发现阿彻, going 0 for 6 with two strikeouts and no hard contact to speak of. In both at-bats that ended in a punchout (one in June 2014 and one in April 2015), 阿切尔去slider-heavy. 在这两年里,斯坦顿击中了 .194个右滑球被击中 .453.

从那以后,这些数字就没有好转过. 他把平均值提高到 .214 against righty sliders, but his slugging percentage dropped to .373. For that, Stanton’s 2018 projections against Archer don’t project much confidence – .227 AVG /.总共477个SLG,还有一个 .223年平均水平, .412滑块的弹流百分比.

Judge cracked a double off a hanging slider on the first pitch he ever saw from Archer in April of last year. 这并不是对未来的预测, however; since then, 法官8投0中,五次三振出局. 和斯坦顿一样,阿彻的滑块是催化剂.

However, Judge’s 2018 projections against Archer don’t scream doom – .252 AVG /.593年SLG. That has a lot to do with the assumption Judge will eventually get fastballs to hit off Archer, 正如他计划的那样 .364年平均水平, .比阿彻的报价高出953个百分点.

If Archer wants to steer clear of too much damage against the Yankees, 他最好测试斯坦顿,而不是法官, 吃的都是滑块.

Marco Estrada,多伦多蓝鸟队

埃斯特拉达已经看到了很多(在vip威尼斯登录入口和他的看来, 也许)的斯坦顿和法官, because of his stint in the National League with the Milwaukee Brewers.

斯坦顿11投4,双人房, 三垒打, 和埃斯特拉达六次三振出局, but that’s a little skewed; Stanton struck out the first four times he faced Estrada. 从那时起,他就把他摸透了, 如果做一些减法, you see he’s four for his last seven against him with those 三垒打 and the double.

Estrada is essentially a fastball-changeup pitcher against right-handers, 更多地依靠他在击球后期的变速球, and he’s more likely to start an at-bat with a curveball than he is to end one with it. That’s what’s gotten him into trouble with Stanton in their most-recent encounters.

斯坦顿2018年对埃斯特拉达的预测是 .320 AVG /.745年SLG. 他的个人投球投射(四缝: .296 AVG /.678 SLG,变速球: .314 AVG /.别给他把斯坦顿救出来的机会, 所以他最好是在强击手周围投球, if it weren’t for one detail – Judge’s projected numbers against Estrada are even better.

在贾奇短暂的职业生涯中, 在与埃斯特拉达的比赛中,他已经在14个打数中击出7支安打, 有两个双打, 两个本垒打, 三个走, 和5分打点. 这是在他的职业生涯开始前的四个赛季.

他打埃斯特拉达的七支安打中有六支来自快速球, which is why Judge’s 2018 projections off the Blue Jay righty scream to not throw him a fastball –  .385 AVG /.900 SLG整体和 .439年美国航空志愿队(飞虎队)/ 1.080速球.

Choosing to pitch to either Stanton or Judge will be like pulling teeth for Estrada. The projections say less damage will be done by Stanton; common sense says to tell the outfielders to move back either way.

凯文·高斯曼,巴尔的摩金莺队的

高斯曼和埃斯特拉达在法官案中遭遇了同样的命运, 在12次击球中被击出6支安打, 包括一个双, 三垒打, 四个走, 和5分打点.

The young Orioles righty was 65 percent fastball last year, which is appetizing for Judge, who hit .352年,敲 .2017年有819个右手快速球. Each of his 三垒打 off Gausman have been off four-seamers.

However, if Gausman made the decision to go offspeed-heavy against Judge, he might have more luck. 2016年,他用滑球三次三振了裁判, though Judge wasn’t the same player during his September call-up that year as he was in 2017. His splitter is his “out” pitch, and it projects well against Judge – .209 AVG /.341年SLG.

他的分割器对斯坦顿很有杀伤力 .036 AVG /.241 SLG – and should give Gausman some clarity on who to attack between the two 50-home run sluggers. Stanton has struggled with the splitter in his career, hitting just .在2017年发行的股票中,有143只股票的波动和失误率为59%. 总的来说,斯坦顿计划出击 .209年,鼻涕虫 .离高斯曼511街,他的职业生涯还没见过他.

这些投手都是上个球季在开幕战先发的, except for Sale (when the Red Sox gave the nod to reigning Cy Young winner Rick Porcello instead), and they all could very well take the mound on Opening Day again this season. 这些都是美联东区最好的投手, and to see what Judge and Stanton have done to them in the past and what they are projected to do against them in 2018 should raise the eyebrows of every member of every pitching staff in the division and beyond.

更糟糕的是, 他们可能看起来背靠背的, 如果他们不小心, 他们可能会看到他们背靠背绕着垒跑.