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球迷参与,团队表现

Draft Day: A Data-Driven Look at Where Top Prospects Could Land

作者:格雷格·吉福德和马特·罗伯茨

数据执行’s simulation mock draft is unlike any of the traditional ones shown elsewhere.

而不是试图 预测 each pick, we used a variety of metrics to choose players that each team 应该 select. Instead of using NFL scouting combine results and medical records, vip威尼斯登录入口将个人表现数据与当前的名单排名进行权衡,以理解一个潜在的选秀权在第一轮如何适应球队.

另外, vip威尼斯登录入口执行了许多高级分析方法,如量化防守者在拆块和破坏玩法设计时的表现, as well as offensive linemen’s pass-blocking and run-blocking performances.

Well, the commissioner has popped on-screen and let us know that the 2020 NFL draft is underway:

路易斯安那州立大学四分卫乔·伯罗

1. 辛辛那提猛虎队- - - - - - 乔·伯罗,QB,路易斯安那州立大学,6-4,216,Sr.

需求:QB, OG, MLB

This pick may as well have been set in stone since the end of the 2019 season ended – and for good reason. 洞穴的井抛率为82.4% was third in all of Power 5 and tops among any QBs with an average attempt of over 8.空气5码. 孟加拉虎队在最重要的位置得到最好的球员,并期待他在第一周开始. 不幸的是洞穴, their offensive line is projected to be last in the league in pass protection, 但他们可以在第二轮解决后卫的不足,2019年首轮选手乔纳·威廉姆斯(Jonah Williams)将从伤病中恢复.

2. 华盛顿红人队 俄亥俄州EDGE的蔡斯·杨,6- 5,265,Jr ..

需要:TE, OG, WR, CB

又一个几个月的虚拟锁, 尽管在常规赛中缺席了两场比赛,但没有哪位大学橄榄球运动员的四分卫压力超过了杨的57次. 他的36.3% 新闻ure Rate was topped by only one Power 5 player (who will be highlighted later in the draft). (新闻ure Rate – pressures per pass rush opportunity) It’s not a position of need, 但杨有潜力在第一年就跃入联盟,成为最好的防守端——你不能错过这个机会. Washington plays in a division where all the teams have offensive lines in the top half of the league, 所以有杨的防守线, 乔纳森•艾伦, 马特埃尼迪斯, Da 'Ron佩恩, 蒂姆解决, Montez Sweat and Ryan Kerrigan is enough to keep even the best offensive lines on their heels.

3. 底特律狮子- - - - - - Jeff Okudah, CB,俄亥俄州,6-1,200,Jr.

需要:CB, EDGE, WR, RB, OG, QB

Okudah is clearly the most talented in a deep cornerback draft, 但他上个赛季的数据并不一定是精英级的. He was comfortably above average in a number of categories (Burn%, 大玩%, 每个目标燃烧码数), but his only elite numbers came in the form of passes defended, 在实力五强的角卫中排名第九. The Lions were already thin at CB before trading Darius Slay and signing Desmond Trufant, so it’s a no-brainer getting the best corner in the draft at a position of need. 他们可以把这个签换下来,然后得到奥库达, 但在一个没有交易的模拟, 他们把他带到这里.

4. 〇纽约巨人队 特里斯坦·维尔夫斯,OT,爱荷华州,6- 5,322,Jr.

需求:C, OT, CB, EDGE

There’s a lot of debate on which offensive lineman will be first off the board, 但vip威尼斯登录入口赌的是Wirfs. 威尔夫斯以他荒谬的综合结果引起了轩然大波,但他的观点却不正确.6% 新闻ure Allowed Rate was tops among all right tackles and shows his skills translate to the field. (压力允许速率-每次传球阻拦机会所允许的压力)在右截球处立即开槽, 或者他与纳特·锡尔特竞争左截锋,而巨人队使用尼克·盖茨——他在2019年的有限抓拍中给人留下了深刻印象——担任右截锋. A right side of Wirfs and Kevin Zeitler would open up some gaping holes for Saquon Barkley.

阿拉巴马州四分卫Tua Tagovailoa (13)

5. 迈阿密海豚。 Tua Tagovailoa,四分卫,阿拉巴马,6-1,218.

需要:QB, OT, OG, DT, S

The injury concerns are noted, but we just cannot ignore Tagovailoa’s on-field success in 2019. 他能在前场找到空位的接球手,并准确命中目标,这让塔戈瓦瓦罗亚获得了第二好的74分.5强四分卫2% xComp%. (xComp% -根据Well - Thrown rate和传球者是否瞄准空位接球的预期传球完成率)海豚队的进攻线目前在数据执行的预测中是第30位. But with two more first-rounders and a whopping 14 total picks, they 应该 find a tackle and at least two interior offensive linemen to help out Tagovailoa.

6. 洛杉矶闪电队- 安德鲁·托马斯,OT,佐治亚州,6- 5,320,Jr.

需要:OT, QB, OG, DT, RB, WR

There is a lot of speculation that the Chargers will look for a QB here, 但塔戈瓦罗亚出局了, vip威尼斯登录入口认为他们最好巩固他们的进攻线. Thomas may not have the physical upside of someone like Mekhi Becton, 但他带来了持续的结果. The Chargers have upgraded the offensive line with the additions of Trai Turner and Bryan Bulaga, 但他们目前的左截锋首发预计是特伦特·斯科特,他在2019年的vip威尼斯登录入口非常糟糕. Some reliability on the blind side is much needed for whoever ends up starting for the Chargers in Week 1.

7. 卡罗琳娜美洲豹队- - - - - - 以赛亚·西蒙斯,克莱姆森,6- 4,230.

需求:OG, CB, MLB, DT, S, EDGE

西蒙斯是多才多艺的典范. 他被列为后卫,但上个赛季有六名球员在四个不同的位置打了100次以上,他是其中之一, FS, OLB, 边缘). 他是一个令人难以置信的高效阻截(只有5次阻截错过了他的99次阻截)和非常好的覆盖(他的44次.Burn Allow%在所有LBs中排名第三). 黑豹队在休赛期失去了很多优秀的球员,而且防守上到处都是漏洞. Simmons gives first-year head coach Matt Rhule a bevy of options on defense.

8. 亚利桑那红雀队- - - - - - 小Jedrick遗嘱.阿拉巴马州奥斯特(OT), 6- 5,320.

需求:OT, EDGE, DT, C

Wills was the top right tackle in Power 5 in run blocking, giving up a disruption on only 2.他的272次冲刺中有9%. 他的传球保护成功率为92.2% isn’t as elite, but it is still well above average among right tackles. 2019年红雀队的进攻线是一个巨大的弱点, 到2020年,这仍然是一个问题. 右铲球需要立即修复, and after filling their need for a receiver through the DeAndre Hopkins trade, the Cardinals can spend a pick on giving Kyler Murray more protection.

9. 杰克逊维尔美洲虎。 德里克·布朗,DT,奥本,6- 5,318,Sr.

需要:CB, DT, OG, OT, WR, EDGE

With a disruption on almost 25% of run plays and a pressure on almost 20% of pass plays against the elite SEC, 布朗已经证明了他在任何情况下都能制造混乱. 在休赛期失去了马赛尔·达勒斯和加莱·坎贝尔之后, 捷豹的内部防御相当薄弱. 布朗是一个与众不同的人, and slotting him next to Taven Bryan gives the Jags an interior to build on.

10. 克利夫兰布朗- Mekhi Becton, OT,路易斯维尔,6- 7,369,Jr.

需求:OT, CB, WR

Becton used his behemoth size to become a top-10 Power 5 left tackle in pass protection. 2019年,他的跑街区胜率略低于平均水平, but he still brings the ability to deliver highlight block after highlight block at the next level. 布朗队的进攻线上有三个位置都是优秀或伟大的球员, 但左边锋不是其中之一. 贝克顿可以移动一些尸体, and adding him 应该 shore up a great set of blockers for Nick Chubb.

阿拉巴马州外接员杰里·朱迪(4)

11. 〇纽约喷气机 杰里·朱迪,WR,阿拉巴马州,6胜1负,192.

需求:OT, EDGE, WR

第一个成为精英外接手, Jeudy has the chance to be a true go-to receiver at the next level. He was fifth in Power 5 in his ability to get open (87% of targets), 这让他成为前10名中唯一一个平均目标长度超过9码的球员. 根据Stats执行的指标, the Jets head into 2020 projected to have the fifth-worst receiving corps in the NFL. A healthy Quincy Enunwa would help, but so would adding our favorite receiver in this draft class.

12. 拉斯维加斯突袭者- 西迪·兰姆,WR,俄克拉荷马州,6-2,189,Jr.

需要:WR, DT, OT, EDGE

Lamb had an incredible season catching passes in his own right. His 17 Burn Yards Per Target (Burn – a productive play for the offense, 他的17个燃烧调整td(伯恩斯也是td)排名第三,而且他在92个目标中没有丢过一次球. 突击者在2019年组建了一个接收组, 而是一整季的提利尔·威廉姆斯, 猎人Renfrow, 达伦·沃勒, 杰森·威腾和兰姆, 突袭队可能会有一个前十的小组.

13. 旧金山49人队- 贾文金劳,DT,南卡罗来纳州,6-6,310,Sr.

需求:DT, OG, CB

Kinlaw was the fourth-most efficient pass rusher among interior linemen this past season, putting pressure on the quarterback on just under 20% of his pass rush attempts. After trading DeForest Buckner, the Niners draft his replacement using the pick they acquired. 他们的边缘冲刺准备好了, and adding another pass-rush threat on the interior would be frightening for opposing quarterbacks.

14. 坦帕湾海盗队 奥斯汀·杰克逊,南加州大学,邮编6-6,小310.

需求:OT, S, RB

There are other quality tackles on the board for the Bucs at this spot, but no one outperformed Jackson in pass protection this past season. He allowed just five pressures in 306 pass snaps protecting his true freshman quarterback at USC. The Bucs would draft Jackson with an eye on moving him to right tackle. 这不是一个容易的转变, 但这是一个需要的领域,他可以坐在黑格后面一年,让他调整自己的保护以适应NFL的速度.

阿拉巴马州接球手亨利·拉格斯三世

15. 丹佛野马队- - - - - - 亨利·拉格斯三世,WR,阿拉巴马州,6-0,小190.  

需求:WR, DT

The second Alabama wideout in the first 15 picks, Ruggs can bring big-play capabilities to Denver. 他的燃烧率(58.3%)和他的燃烧码每个目标(16.8)在Power 5中都是前4名. The Broncos are missing a receiver who can outrun the defense, and Ruggs is that player. 他们有考特兰·萨顿和诺亚·范特, 但他们也不擅长开放, 他们都更依赖于在接球点获胜,而不是在他们和防守者之间保持几码的距离. 拉格斯将完成这支收兵部队.

16. 亚特兰大猎鹰队- - - - - - CJ Henderson, CB,佛罗里达州,6-1,202,Jr.

需求:CB, OG, MLB, EDGE, DT

Despite playing in only nine games during his junior season due to an ankle injury, Henderson used his elite closing speed to lead the Gators in pass breakups. 丹·奎因喜欢大角球和快速防守. 亨德森勾选了这两个选项, 当肯德尔·谢菲尔德(Kendall Sheffield)进入全职位置时,他应该能在以赛亚·奥利弗(Isaiah Oliver)面前获得即时快照.

17. 达拉斯牛仔队, 杰伦·约翰逊,CB,犹他,6-0,195.

需要:DT, TE, C, CB, WR

The two-time first-team All-Pac-12 corner limited big plays at an elite level in 2019. 约翰逊的24.4% Big Play Allowed Rate was good enough for seventh among all Power 5 corners and second in the Pac-12. 在自由市场,牛仔队失去了拜伦·琼斯, but they’re still just one corner away from having a top pass defense again. Drafting Johnson allows Jourdan Lewis to move back into the slot, 而他阻止重大进攻的能力也很好地配合了一支要求他打很多单高防守的球队.

18. 迈阿密海豚。 Josh Jones, OT,休斯顿,6-7,老310.

需要:OT, OG, DT, S

Jones decided to play college football at local University of Houston, starting his team’s first nine games in 2019 before his season was ultimately cut short by a knee injury. 琼斯96年.8% Pass Protection Win Rate was second among all left tackles in the Group of Five conferences. The Dolphins head into 2020 with the fourth-worst projected offensive line, 所以他们需要人才的注入.

19. 拉斯维加斯突袭者- Kristian Fulton, CB, LSU, 6- 0,200, Sr.

需求:DT, OT, EDGE

Fulton played well as a starter for national champion LSU, garnering AP second-team All-SEC honors. 角落不是突击者最需要的, but they’ve rebuilt their defense into one projected to be in the top half of the league in 2020. Fulton has a few flaws in his game that were on display in the national championship, 但他被选中的体系可以让他更轻松地成为一名长期首发球员,对抗特雷沃恩·穆伦.

20. 杰克逊维尔美洲虎。 Trevon Diggs, CB,阿拉巴马州,6- 2,207,Sr.

需要:CB, OG, OT, WR

利用他的身材和运动天赋, Diggs allowed open receivers at a rate 29% lower than the average Power 5 cornerback. 捷豹在角落的深度图表是相当悲哀的. D.J. Hayden is great as a slot corner, while the jury is still out on Tre Herndon on the outside. Diggs isn’t Jalen Ramsey, but he can play immediately on a team that needs him to.

路易斯安那州立大学外接员贾斯汀·杰斐逊(2)

21. 费城鹰队的, Justin Jefferson, WR, LSU, 6- 3,192, Jr.

需求:WR, CB, OT

杰佛逊在大比赛(71场)中领先所有Power 5的接球手.8) and Burns (100), and he finished second in Burn Adjusted Touchdowns (20) and Burn Yards (1,723.5). (td和19码以上的传球是完整的大动作, 在2020年的比赛中,老鹰队的接球手可以说是全美橄榄球联盟中最差的, 但在杰斐逊有个不错的.

22. 明尼苏达维京人, t·希金斯,WR,克莱姆森,6- 4,215,Jr.

需要:CB, WR, OG, EDGE, DT

在一个堆叠的接收器类中, Higgins performed comparably with the other four receivers we believe 应该 be drafted in the first round. Higgins dominated ACC competition in 数据执行’s receiver metrics, ranking No. 1次燃烧调整触地得分(15次),高命中率(57次).6%),每个目标燃烧码(15.8)和预定目标的开仓率(83.2%). (Open Rate – rate of being open on targeted passes) The Vikings get their replacement for Stefon Diggs, and Kirk Cousins gets a guy who can get himself open down the field on all those play-action passes.

23. 〇新英格兰爱国者队 A.J. 爱荷华州的埃佩内萨(Epenesa),邮编6- 6,280.

需要:EDGE, DT, TE, OT, WR, QB

作为AP全美第二队的球员,他连续两个赛季都打出了两位数的进球,并且在半场进攻中也同样令人印象深刻,他以23次的得分在十大边缘防守球员中并列第四. Epenesa is a big defender who can play a multitude of roles in the defense. He can play outside on early downs and hold his own against the run, 然后在子包里踢进去. The Pats haven’t found a replacement for Trey Flowers yet, but Epenesa could be that guy.

24. 〇新奥尔良圣徒队 贾斯汀·赫伯特,四分卫,俄勒冈州,6-6,237,老.

需求:QB, WR, S

参数并不能打败竞争对手, but we felt that this pick was between Herbert and Jordan Love. Herbert outperformed Love in the majority of our passing metrics such as Well Thrown Rate, xComp% and Open Target Rate (rate of targeting an open receiver). Sean Payton has a lot of fun drawing up plays that tailor to Taysom Hill’s athleticism, 赫伯特也有很多运动天赋. 他不会像希尔那样参加特殊的比赛, 但在接替他之前,他有机会向Drew Brees学习几年,或者至少和Hill竞争这个职位.

25. 明尼苏达维京人, Yetur Gross-Matos, EDGE,宾夕法尼亚州立大学,6-5,264,Jr.

需求:CB, OG, EDGE, DT

格罗斯-马托斯不仅是一个有效的传9.5 sacks in 2019, but he was also the best edge defender against the run in the Big Ten with a 16.运行中断率是1.比仅次于最佳的边缘防守者高出7%. The left side of the Vikings’ line is occupied by a top-20 edge player in Danielle Hunter, but the right side needs work now that Everson Griffen is gone. 格罗斯-马托斯是维京人最喜欢的防守阵型.

26. 迈阿密海豚。 Xavier McKinney, S,阿拉巴马,6-1,200,Jr.

需要:OT, OG, DT, S

The first-team All-SEC selection ended 2019 as a semifinalist for the Jim Thorpe Award, 每年都给国家的顶级防御背. 他不仅在铲断方面领先阿拉巴马, 但McKinney也限制了在报道方面的大发挥,在Power 5个免费安全设施(7个)中,每个目标燃烧场的数量第四少.2). The Dolphins have overhauled their secondary in the last few years, but they’re still missing the safety that caps Brian Flores’ defense. 他们在这里找到了他, 而海豚队的副手将从2019年初的笑柄变成2020年的强大单位.

密歇根队后卫乔希·尤切(6)

27. 西雅图海鹰队- - - - - - Josh Uche, EDGE,密歇根州,6- 2,250,Sr.

需求:EDGE, DT, OG

Uche 36个.4% 新闻ure Rate ranked first among all Power 5 edge rushers in 2019. 目前海鹰队边缘冲锋的压力率最高的球员是12岁的沙奎尔·格里芬.3. 在失去雅德维恩·克鲁尼和以西结·安萨之后, 过路的人少得可怜, 而Uche现在更像是一个情势下的传球者, 他可以向不老的布鲁斯·欧文学习. 海鹰队有一枚三向向下的爆炸武器, with their eye on turning him into their next great strongside linebacker.

28. 巴尔的摩乌鸦队- - - - - - 肯尼斯·默里,LB,俄克拉荷马州,6- 2,234.

需求:MLB, EDGE, OG

Murray ranked first among all Power 5 linebackers in Run Disruption Rate (18%) in 2019. On a rebuilt Ravens defensive line, he’ll have ample opportunity to fly around and make tackles. 巴尔的摩有一个相当完整的球员名单, so filling one of its few needs with a playmaker is a classic Ravens pick.

29. 田纳西泰坦- Jeff Gladney, CB, TCU, 6- 0,183, Sr.

需要:EDGE, CB, DT, OT, RB

在12大球队中,这支全美第二阵容的角卫几乎在所有主要vip威尼斯登录入口中都名列前茅. 格莱德尼在《vip威尼斯登录入口》中排名第一.4)、允许燃烧百分比(35.7)和开放允许% (35.(7),第2个燃烧码允许每个目标(8.3). The Titans let Logan Ryan walk this offseason, and Gladney takes over for him right away. He’ll help a pass defense we currently project to be ranked 23rd in the NFL.

密苏里州防守前锋乔丹·埃利奥特(1)

30. 绿湾包装工队- 乔丹·艾略特,DT,密苏里州,6- 4,315.

需要:OG, DT, WR, TE

数据执行的顶级内卫之一, the second-team AP All-American defended the run and put pressure on the quarterback at elite levels in 2019. His 48 Run Disruptions and 28 QB pressures ranked second and third, 分别, 在所有的力量5内线. The Packers have one of the best pass-rushing defenses in the NFL, but their interior defenders not named Kenny Clark have been subpar. Slotting Elliott in next to Clark will give the Packers the weapons to create even more mismatches. 接球手或进攻内线是另一个选择, 但考虑到草案中那些强有力的立场, 当包装工队选择下一个球员时,应该会有选择的.

31. 旧金山49人队- 劳埃德·库森贝里三世,C,路易斯安那州立大学,6- 4,315,Jr.

需求:OG, CB, DT

他是乔·摩尔获奖进攻线的中坚力量, Cushenberry earned first-team All-SEC honors during LSU’s’ 2019 national title run. 他的跑盖命中率为94.9 ranked first among all SEC centers, and he 应该 thrive on a team that likes to pound the ball. 49人队开始铲球, 但它们的内部很薄, and selecting Cushenberry gives them a long-term solution at center.

32. 〇堪萨斯市长 特雷尔·刘易斯(Terrell Lewis),阿拉巴马州,6- 5,252岁.

需求:OT, OG, MLB, EDGE

在2017年和2018年因伤缺席了一段时间后, Lewis finished his 2019 season on the coaches’ All-SEC second-team. His 31% 新闻ure Rate ranked third among all Power 5 edge rushers and No. 1个在SEC. 像Uche, 刘易斯目前是一名突击队员, 在2014年的第一轮投票中,他们将迪•福特(Dee Ford)从奥本大学(Auburn)招出.

Advanced analytics and data analysis provided by 数据执行’s Kyle Cunningham-Rhoads.