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Why the Final Four Shouldn’t Be Such a Shock

: STATS LLC

The NCAA Tournament is always full of surprises, 和 这 year has been no exception. 然而,即使有两个No. 1颗种子和1颗一号种子. 四强排名第三, 这 round of March Madness has somehow proven to be one of the most unpredictable.

Per ESPN’s Tournament Challenge, only 0.003 percent of submissions correctly guessed the  Final Four. Last year, three times 那 fraction of brackets were picked correctly even though there was 一个没有. 10 seed (Syracuse) crashing the party.

2014年,答案是否定的. 7号种子 一个没有. 四强8号种子,0.006 percent (double 这 year’s share) of people perfected their selections. Why is 这 combination such a surprise?

答案就在品牌上. 的晚了, the two years 那 produced zero flawless Final Four predictions were the two years 那 included mid-majors (Wichita State in 2013, 巴特勒在2011年).  Few had even heard of Wichita State (no, Wichita is still not a state) much less picked them to make 那 sort of run – remember, the Shockers’ 34-0 regular season wasn’t until the year 他们进入了四强. And 那 2013 roster wound up having three future NBA 球员.

Butler was a slightly different story. The Bulldogs had already made it to the national championship game in 2010 和 headed into the 2011 tourney having won nine straight. Yet Brad Stevens’ team wasn’t even favored to make it past Old Dominion in the first round, let alone be a member of the Final Four. Hardly a household name to fans then, even if it’s become one since.

仍然, these projections somewhat made sense on paper, given 那 Wichita State 和 Butler both would have to beat 一个没有. 1粒种子甚至可以进入甜蜜16强. 参加今年的锦标赛, these were the chances of each remaining team making it to the Final Four, 根据 FiveThirtyEight:

贡扎加 had the highest probability in the entire tournament pool of making it to the Final Four, 然而, just 37 percent of brackets put them there.

回到品牌. 尤其是事关金钱的时候, people are most comfortable choosing teams 那 have an established name. In other words, people are most comfortable choosing teams 那 have high 种植, 浮华的 球员,以及可测量的数量 经验, regardless of anything else 那 may be relevant.

North Carolina checks all the criteria on 那 list. It leads the NCAA in Final Four appearances (20) 和 ranks second in total tournament appearances (48). 想想. UNC has made it to the Final Four in over 40 percent of its total tournament trips. So, not only did the Tar Heels enter as 一个没有. 1 seed, but one could say 那, well … they’ve been here before. Throw in likely lottery pick Justin Jackson, who has averaged 19.8分,6.3个篮板,4个.在精英8强中送出3次助攻, 和 it’s no surprise 那 45 percent of brackets picked UNC to make it 这 far.

贡扎加, 另一方面, has been in the Big Dance 20 times 和 has never played in a single Final Four game. 但他们得到的答复是否定的. 播下种子是有原因的. The Zags suffered just one loss in the regular season, posting a points per game differential of plus-23.4 – the best in Division I since Duke’s 1998-99 juggernaut 那 featured five lottery picks. The next best 这 season was Wichita State at 19.6.

这里的点微分问题. To win 30-plus games in a season is no easy task, but to win them by 很多都是真正具有历史意义的. 贡扎加的日程安排绝非易事, 要么, containing fellow NCAA Tournament teams in Iowa State, 佛罗里达, Arizona 和 Saint Mary’s (three times). 仍然, 人选择品牌, so more trust was put into teams like Duke (40%), 亚利桑那州(45%), 维拉诺瓦(48%), 和堪萨斯州(58%, the most commonly selected Final Four team via CBS).

Just 9 percent of brackets placed Oregon in their Final Four, compared to 27 percent in favor of fellow-No. 3-seed UCLA despite the Ducks finishing ahead of the Bruins in the Pac-12. Part of 那 could have had to do with the season-ending injury to big man Chris Boucher, but there are perhaps two bigger reasons. 一个, UCLA has 48 tournament appearances to Oregon’s 15, including 18 Final Fours – all of which came well 后 the Ducks’ lone previous trip, in 1939. 第二, Lonzo球.

We can’t forget South Carolina, which is easily the biggest reason for such bracket mayhem. 当然,他们是否定的. 7号种子, they have zero Final Four 经验 和 don’t have a single player who’s a surefire first-round pick. Sure, they had a one percent chance of making it to the Final Four. 当然,0.2 percent of nearly 19 million people picked them to make it 这 far. 但vip威尼斯登录入口应该这样吗 很惊讶他们做到了?

The Gamecocks had regular-season wins over Michigan, Syracuse 和 佛罗里达 和 has a top-10 KenPom defense 那’s one of the most aggressive in the country. They have the SEC player of the year in Sindarius Thornwell.

也许这并不令人惊讶. Maybe it’s time 那 “br和” gets re-br和ed.

Photos By: AP Photo/Charlie Riedel/Young Kwak/Julio Cortez/Gerry Broome